Trump 2.0: New Terms of Trade

Trade negotiations appear fluid, but the 25% Canada/Mexico and 10% China levies represent a step function higher in U.S. tariff policy.
If permanent, tariffs to be implemented in Trump’s second term are already likely to have a larger economic impact than in his first.
Outright deflation in goods has helped ease inflation, but tariffs may threaten this trend.
While new tariffs are a headwind to economic growth and a tailwind for inflation, they are unlikely to tip the U.S. into recession